Why does this matter? The ASR represents not only a potential trade revolution but also a new environmental front line. It encompasses the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage, which have been branded as the Polar Silk Road to underline its economic promise.

China has recently launched the “world’s first China-Europe Arctic Express container route”, cutting transit time from over 40 days via the Suez Canal to just 18 days. Meanwhile, the Central Arctic Route, the sea route crossing the central Arctic Ocean, was navigated for the first time in 2025 by icebreaking vessels. These rapid developments mirror the region’s accelerating sea ice loss and the opportunity grabbing of shipping companies to reduce their delivery times. Yet the environmental trade-off is stark.

The most immediate threat is black carbon – soot-like particles from ship exhaust that account for around 20% of shipping’s global climatic impact. These particles enter the lower levels of the atmosphere and trap heat. In the Arctic, the effects of black carbon on global warming become up to 10 times greater.

When black carbon settles on snow and ice, it darkens the surface, reducing reflectivity and accelerating melt. This sets off a self-reinforcing feedback loop – as ice disappears, less sunlight is reflected, more heat is absorbed and warming intensifies. Alarmingly, black carbon emissions in the Arctic rose by 85% between 2015 and 2019, resulting from increased shipping traffic which will only keep growing.

While the International Maritime Organization (IMO) passed a 2024 regulation to restrict heavy fuel oil (HFO), a major source of black carbon, loopholes will allow many ships to continue using HFO until mid-2029. The delay weakens global climate efforts just as the Arctic enters a critical decade of change.

Questions have also been raised around the effectiveness of the ban, as oil blenders move towards fuels that contain more paraffins that are harder to clean up in the event of an oil spill. Decarbonisation of shipping has featured heavily on IMO’s agenda in October, with legislation seeking to fine vessels weighing 5,000 tons that exceed set emission thresholds and reward those using greener fuels.

Oil spills represent a catastrophic risk to the Arctic environment. As sea ice recedes, the number of ships carrying oil and chemicals through Arctic waters increases the likelihood of spills. Oil behaves differently in icy waters – it can slip beneath sea ice, making detection and clean-up extremely difficult. Crude and heavy fuel oils can persist for years, contaminating the prey and sites of marine mammals and threatening the food security of Arctic communities.

Scientists stress the urgent need for improved remote sensing technologies to detect and monitor oil pollution in real time to increase response time in remote regions. However, the Arctic Council warns that even the most advanced clean-up techniques are hampered by extreme weather and limited access.

Beyond carbon and oil, shipping noise presents another ecological hazard. Beluga whales can detect and flee from icebreaking noise caused by ships 35-78 km away, avoiding the areas for days after and disrupting their natural movement in an area. Alternatively, Caspian, Harp and Ribbon seals are vulnerable to ship strikes due to their “freeze” reflex when startled.

The ASR opening amplifies global emissions and environmental inequalities, shifting burdens toward high-latitude, ecologically sensitive waters that have had little shipping contact. As the Arctic is responsible for driving ocean currents and subsequent weather systems across the globe, the impact of increased shipping contributing to rising temperatures in the region will also impact the world.

By monitoring effects of shipping on sound and water quality in the Arctic using technology made by companies such as SOFAR, we can learn more about how this sensitive environment is being influenced by current shipping to inform future mitigation and policies. If the Arctic is to become the Polar Silk Road, we must focus efforts into decarbonising shipping to prevent the Arctic’s delicate environment being transformed indefinitely at an accelerated rate.