El Niño and the impact on aquaculture

According to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (SOFIA 2026 report) estimates, global fisheries and aquaculture production reached a record 235 million tonnes in 2024, of which 195 million tonnes aquatic animals, which are increasingly central to diets. Almost 90% of production of aquatic animals goes to human consumption, supplying at least one-fifth of the animal protein consumption of 3.1 billion people, becoming key in the fight against food insecurity.

The sector also supports more than 600 million livelihoods worldwide and could generate between 13 to 22 million new jobs by 2050 only if stakeholders capitalise on the $1.5 trillion dollar investment opportunity in the sector during the same period. Aquatic animal production has continued to grow, averaging 3.2% annually since the 1950s with aquaculture production of aquatic animals surpassing 100 million tonnes for the first time (valued at $371 billion at farm gate) in 2024. Capture fisheries reached about 92 million tonnes and have remained within the 86–94 million tonnes range since the late 1980s.

As fish farming practices intensify, the aquaculture industry is facing growing demand for fishmeal and fish oil, core aquafeed inputs especially for salmon and shrimp. Increasing vulnerability to supply shocks, particularly those linked to climate change and recurring El Niño events, is impacting fishmeal/fish oil supply and increasing feed costs in anticipation of future disruption.

Peru’s anchoveta fishery is an example of El Niño’s impact. It depends on the Humboldt Current, a cold, nutrient-rich upwelling system that is responsible for roughly 8% of the global marine catch and around 10% of the world’s total anchovy harvest. The 2023 and mid-2010 El Niño events drove shortfalls, and, according to the FAO in May, Peruvian quotas for the first 2026 and second 2025 seasons, total 3.5 million tonnes, 30% less year-on-year.

Super prime fishmeal FOB Peru reached $2,500 per tonne in May 2026, against around $1,400 a year earlier, while feed-grade fish oil reached $4,100 per tonne FOB Peru, a 64% year-on-year increase. That was before Peru’s Ministry of Production officially terminated the first 2026 North-Central anchovy season by closing the fishery on 19 August, leaving over 1.4 million metric tons of the quota completely uncaught.

Investable solutions to El Niño-exacerbated problems

Alternative feed sources

According to Rabobank rsearch, fishmeal shortages are projected to emerge as early as 2028, while fish oil scarcity is expected to intensify throughout the decade, and alternative feed sources will play a critical role. Enthos is a waste to feed business that uses Black Soldier Fly larvae to upcycle organic food waste into a high-quality fish meal and fish oil, addressing a critical need for sustainable protein sources for aquaculture as well as animal feed.

Tilabras, a farm in Brazil that produces thousands of metric tons of fresh tilapia a year benefiting from the outstanding water conditions of the Parana River, is insulated from the escalating costs of feed costs because its fishmeal-free formula is made of locally sourced grain. Tilabras’ natural way of tilapia farming described in this Investment Spotlight, both lowers the CO2 footprint but also provides more sustainable and healthier alternatives to normal fishmeal.

Advanced genetics

The Peruvian and Chilean aquaculture industries are not the only ones being impacted by El Niño. In Thailand, the aquaculture sector is on alert for reduced water quality and increased disease pressure in shrimp specifically, as well as feed/ingredient supply chains tied to the drought and heavy-rain cycles that become more pronounced.

One way to alleviate increased disease pressure exacerbated by El Niño is via enhanced genetics that improve growth and survival, driving greater farming efficiency, reducing waste and enabling increased environmental sustainability and profitability. By increasing yield per hectare per year, relative land requirements are reduced. By improving feed conversion ratio, consumption per unit of production of scarce resources, such as fishmeal, is reduced.

Characterised by advanced genetics, precise nutritional formulations, and complex global supply chains, global shrimp production has increased from less than 75,000 metric tons in 1980 to more than 6.1 million mt in 2025. The market size for the global shrimp industry is estimated to range between $65 billion and $80 billion in 2026.

A recent Investment Spotlight highlighted how SyAqua, a Singapore-based supplier of genetics and early-stage nutrition to the shrimp hatchery market, offers a proprietary ‘balance’ line that is an attractive blend of both good growth and disease resistance. This has the potential to have a significant impact on the sustainable intensification of shrimp farming, by improving disease resistance without overly compromising growth. The resultant high average crop yields enable reduced resource consumption per unit of production.

With a historical focus on Asia, SyAqua opened a new hatchery in Bangpakong, Chachoengsao in October 2024 that significantly boosts shrimp production in Thailand and extends its reach to customers across the eastern, central, and upper southern regions of the country.

Digital Transformation

Via patented IoT devices and fintech services, Aqua Exchange currently automates large areas of shrimp farming operations in India. While Aqua Exchange, profiled in this Investment Spotlight, does not currently operate in Thailand, its digital transformation technology could be applied to transform the Thai shrimp sector.

Once generating more 100 billion (approximately US$2.8 billion) in annual export revenue, disease-driven production costs have left Thai shrimp roughly $1 per pound more expensive than rivals from Ecuador and India. This is why the Thai Shrimp Association has called on the government to take urgent action. Having raised $8 million in series B funding, Aqua Exchange is currently validating its regional model in Indonesia.

In 2024, Thailand was the ninth largest exporting nation of fish and fishery products with exports worth $5.6 billion. Cage fish farming, of species such as Nile tilapia and climbing perch, has become a popular form of aquaculture in the Northern part of Thailand, contributing to improving livelihoods, food supply, employment, and income of the local population.

For this reason, in addition to Thailand’s shrinking shrimp industry, AquaManager, a comprehensive software solution supporting all stages of fish aquaculture production from hatchery to harvest, could potentially be an ideal productivity enhancing tool for the region. The company, explored in this Investment Spotlight, already has pilot collaborations are with SyAqua and Tilabras, although not with deployment in Thailand.

Harmful algal blooms

Another El Niño side effect are the harmful algal blooms (HABs), where a marine heatwave combined with nutrient loading can produce a deadly overload of algae. In 2016, such an event hit Chile, the world’s second biggest salmon exporter, killing 23 million of farmed salmon by March that year. The economic impact from lost production reached $800 million. For this reason, Sernapesca, Chile’s national fisheries authority, has been coordinating with the salmon industry since March 2026 over blooms of Heterosigma akashiwo that have affected 11 fish farms in the Reloncaví Sound area of the Los Lagos region.

Sofar Ocean, unlocks ocean data and for marine sensing and its extensible Spotter platform, a solar-powered uncrewed surface vehicle, delivers real-time surface and subsurface data to power climate research and solutions. Spotter Scout is the mobile version of the Spotter platform that can track harmful algal blooms.

Most data collection instruments are designed to follow currents to track phenomena like HABs, pollutant dispersion, or surface transport patterns, but they either must be recovered or are lost. Sofar’s Spotter Scout is deployed as a drifter to follow currents and collect data along the way, and when the mission is complete, it can be commanded to return to its launch point or any designated recovery location.

Recirculating Aquaculture Systems (RAS), such as those used by The Kingfish Company, are one of the more resilient production models against exactly the kind of stress El Niño is creating, with a controlled environment that is only minimally affected by climatic factors, including rainfall variation, flood, drought, global warming, cyclone, salinity fluctuation, ocean acidification, and sea level rise.

Closed, treated, recirculating systems mean the fish are not sitting in ambient seawater as they would in open net-pens that are more vulnerable to HABs, such as those happened in Chile’s Reloncaví Sound this year. Closed, bio secure water treatment removes most of the pathogen-introduction pathway that open systems are exposed to, allowing companies like Kingfish to operate without the use of antibiotics or vaccines. That said, RAS does not help to mitigate feed/fishmeal cost inflation or energy costs for the power needed to cool down tanks during a warming event.

What does El Niño mean for future blue economy investing?

Marine heatwaves and the deeper impact of El Niño create three blue economy investing challenges. The first is carbon sink degradation. Warmer surface water absorbs CO2 less efficiently, which is a relevant consideration for any ocean-based carbon-removal technology investments.

The second is relevant for blue bond and debt-for-nature investors, who will need to price in the risks of elevated marine heatwave frequency. The frequency of marine heatwaves has doubled since the 1980s, and this could increase by a factor of four to eight by the end of the 21st century under continued warming, according to IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report. And the third challenge is for future-proofing shipping and coastal infrastructure that are likely to face secondary effects such as storm intensity, sea-level rise and coastal risk over the long term.

All the challenges the summer’s heatwaves and upcoming El Niño event not-withstanding, it is time to double down on blue economy investing. Much like revising for exams, a last-minute cram is unlikely to move the needle. As mentioned at the start of the article, aquaculture alone is potentially a trillion-dollar investment opportunity.

Based on the sector’s current trajectory, business-as-usual investments of $500 billion could increase growth of aquaculture at a rate of 1.9% to 159 million metric tons, excluding seaweeds, and generate eight to 14 million new jobs by 2050. But by upping the ante and investing $1.5 trillion in more ambitious measures could increase global aquaculture production to 255 million metric tons by 2050, almost 100 million metric tons higher than the “business-as-usual” case and create between 13 and 22 million jobs.

Beyond aquaculture, food security, sustainable fisheries and alternative proteins and feed ingredients, blue ports and maritime infrastructure, ocean data, and the restoration of marine ecosystems are all potential investment themes.

Ocean plastics should be a win-win in terms of recycling and re-using plastics, but financing is lacking. Between 2018 and 2023, $32 billion of private investment was mobilised per year but more than $1 trillion is needed annually to reduce plastic pollution by 90% by 2040. Moreover, the finance that is available is not going to the right places with more than 80% of private investments going to downstream solutions.

The opportunities do exist. Bureo, which turns fishing net pollution into recycled raw materials, highlights what can be achieved just by focusing on one tiny niche of the circular plastic economy. Aion, which helps company solve their plastic challenges, and Novelplast, which creates useable raw materials from industrial plastic waste, are among the circular plastic investments in Ocean 14 Capital Fund 1.

The funding gap for Europe alone is estimated at €60 billion to €70 billion specifically in turning blue-tech innovation into bankable, scalable projects, driven by a shortage of late-stage private equity to help startups scale. The European Commission BlueInvest Investor Report 2026: The Next Wave of Blue Growth, mapped 159 private funds active in the EU blue economy, with about €3 billion in dedicated blue funds and roughly €11 billion in private capital from investors with partial exposure.

Over the next few terms, we will be taking deep dives into themes such as: offshore wind and marine renewables, which ticks the decarbonisation strategy box, as the EU plans to install at least 300 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2050; ocean technology and data; and ports and maritime infrastructure. The latter alone is estimated to be valued at $65.4 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $101.7 billion by 2033, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate of 7.2% over the period. The growth will be driven by the steady growth of global trade and containerisation, increasing demand for efficient cargo handling, and expansion of maritime logistics networks, with rising investments in modernising ports with automation, smart technologies, and digital systems.

This summer’s heatwaves and upcoming El Niño have reinforced the indisputable link between the ocean and the climate crisis, highlighting that dollars spent on blue economy solutions can be the same dollars spent on climate mitigation. It is always worth remembering the High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy’s Ocean Panel research, which suggested that investing $1 in key ocean actions could yield at least $5 in global benefits between 2020 and 2050, essentially a 450% to 615% return.

Why does this matter? Hokkaido’s situation is not an isolated case. Wild fisheries have largely plateaued globally, with climate change and environmental pressures creating additional challenges for the sector. Aquaculture, meanwhile, continues to expand, reaching  103 million mt of aquatic animal production in 2024 and accounting for 53% of total aquatic animal production, having driven virtually the entire increase in global aquatic output since the late 1980s.

Hokkaido’s cooperatives and hatchery associations are testing that shift at a local level, moving into both marine cage and freshwater hatchery-based farming as declining wild salmon returns push them towards the farmed alternatives increasingly driving growth across the global seafood industry.

Experimenting across models – Hokkaido’s cooperatives are testing more than one route into aquaculture. At Taiki fishing port, Taiki Fisheries Cooperative has added coho salmon to an existing marine farming trial, having started with cherry salmon in 2020 and introduced trout salmon last year, allowing it to compare which species suits local farming conditions best.

The Hidaka Hatchery Association has begun trial production and intermediate rearing of juvenile cherry salmon and rainbow trout, including the fast-growing Donaldson strain. In southern Hokkaido, the Oshima Hatchery Association is testing higher-density rearing of trout juveniles at a hatchery in Fukushima, using capacity that would otherwise sit idle outside the wild-salmon production cycle.

Diversification as key – The projects remain at the trial stage, but the widening participation shows how seriously Hokkaido is treating the collapse in returning chum salmon. Taken together, Hokkaido’s six cooperatives and two salmon hatchery associations are testing diverse routes into aquaculture, from marine cage farming to freshwater hatchery production.

Land and sea, at commercial scale – That same diversity is reflected across the global aquaculture market, where different species, environments and production systems call for different approaches. Sea and land-based systems are increasingly operating side by side, each suited to a different part of the supply chain.

In Norway, KIME Akva has acquired five sites across Northern Norway to farm cod as a supplement to a wild fishery that has seen catches fall 42% over the past eight years. Barents Sea quotas were cut 20% in 2024 a declining number that can be supplemented by KIME Akva’s goal of 24,000 mt of annual production by 2030. In Brazil, Tilabras farms tilapia in cages on the Parana River, taking fish through their full life cycle on a vegan feed diet, and is licenced to produce up to 100,000 mt of farmed protein, demonstrating the potential for large-scale freshwater cage farming.

No single blueprint – The Kingfish Company, meanwhile, takes a different approach, using land-based recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) to produce yellowtail kingfish in a highly controlled environment. Together, the three illustrate that the future of aquaculture is unlikely to be defined by a single production model. The opportunity lies in matching species, geography and technology to the most effective way of producing aquatic protein.

The bottom line – Wild-catch volatility is not confined to Hokkaido, or to salmon. Whether the answer is marine cages, freshwater hatcheries or RAS tanks, the direction is the same: sea and land-based systems are proving complementary, not competing. Production is shifting away from what the ocean happens to provide in a given year, and towards farmed systems that fishing communities and investors can plan around.

Why does it matter? Aquaculture is the fastest growing segment of the global food industry, with production projected to rise 17% by 2032 compared to 2022. That growth is colliding with a structural constraint – reliance on wild-caught fish for feed is increasingly unsustainable, given widespread overfishing and increasingly unpredictable climate patterns. More than 37% of global fish stocks are already overfished and seven of the world’s top ten fisheries by volume target wild forage species that are the cornerstone of marine food webs.

Funding the transition – The report frames algae as one part of the solution, recommending it sit alongside fish by-products and other alternatives rather than replace fish-based feed outright. Proposed support includes tax incentives, phased-out subsidies for unsustainable fish-based feed inputs, blended finance for early-stage projects and inclusion of algae-based feed within the EU Taxonomy for Sustainable Activities.

Making it commercial – Producing algal oil at scale is energy-intensive and currently more expensive than fish oil from dedicated feedstocks, but cost and performance improve when producers use waste streams instead, such as MiAlgae’s use of co-products from whisky distilling. Heterotrophic fermentation, the method used by Corbion and Veramaris, costs around $14,500 per mt of oil, broadly comparable to fish oil, and is most competitive when sourced from co-products, offering a supply chain insulated from an increasingly unpredictable environment. Protein from the black soldier fly, produced by companies such as Enthos, also offers an alternative protein source to replace fishmeal, as explored in our previous blog.

Peru’s warning sign – The case for insulating aquafeed from wild fish supply shocks is playing out in real time. Peru, which produces around 20% of the world’s fishmeal, has extended its suspension of anchovy fishing in its principal North-Central zone multiple times this year, after warming ocean conditions linked to a coastal El Nino event drove up the presence of juveniles in catches.

Back to the source – Understanding why the Commission is turning to algae requires understanding the key ingredients forage fish provide in aquafeed. EPA and DHA are the omega-3 fatty acids essential to fish health and the industry has traditionally relied on smaller fish to pass these nutrients to larger farmed fish such as salmon. Fish do not produce these fatty acids themselves – they accumulate them by eating algae, or by eating smaller fish that have themselves consumed algae. Algal oil bypasses this wild-catch stage entirely. The European Commission calls this a “more direct, logical, and higher-quality source”, replacing an unpredictable harvesting chain with a controlled, land-based fermentation process.

Cleaner by design – The report also urges policymakers to apply the “as low as reasonably achievable” (ALARA) principle when contaminant limits under Directive 2002/32/EC are next revised. Pollutants in oceans and rivers leave fish carrying increasing concentrations of dioxins and PCBs, passed on in greater quantities further up the food chain. Because algae can be fermented in a controlled environment, a cleaner contaminant profile could become a competitive advantage over fish oil, not just an environmental one. Research also suggests black soldier flies would benefit from this revision, dependent on the type of feed they receive.

The bottom line – Algal oil marks a genuinely exciting shift for aquafeed, offering a stable source of EPA and DHA insulated from the volatility plaguing wild fisheries. However, the protein element remains unresolved. Algae meal inclusion rates are still modest and processing technology has not matured enough to displace fishmeal’s protein content at scale. Until that gap closes, alternatives such as Enthos‘ black soldier fly larvae, converting organic waste into protein meal and oil, may prove a more viable near-term solution. Algae’s real promise, for now, lies chiefly in oil.

Why does it matter? Oceans and rivers are essential to livelihoods and economies however they are experiencing increasing stress and degradation on a warming and polluted planet. If the ocean were a country, it would be the seventh largest economy in the world.

Although public money and NGOs are already engaging in conservation and ways to protect the environment, financial and private sectors are critical to turn the tide of the global economy towards protecting and valuing nature. Blue bonds are a way to engage these actors, and the fact that one of the largest economies in the world has created a blue bond indicates continued commitment to protect the planet while incentivising the financial system.

Defining blue bonds – A blue bond is most commonly a use-of-proceeds bond, which is a debt instrument issued by governments, development banks or companies that allow them to receive money for projects upfront that meet specific criteria to benefit the ocean and maritime sector. These proceeds are used exclusively for projects that are in line with the purpose outlined in the blue bond terms.

The investor who buys the blue bond in upfront cash is paid back firstly through regular interest payments over the life of the bond, and secondly through the return of the original upfront investment once a project has been successful and reaches maturity.

Benefits of issuing blue bonds – Benefits for a company such as Sagarmala Finance Corporation include the ability to access untapped capital for blue economy projects and enable long-term financing as well as becoming a leader in a new asset class, increasing their investor base and making them attractive for governments and companies to help.

For example, the Sagarmala Finance Corporation bonds are targeting INR20bn in equity infusion from the Indian government as it expands the loan book. This makes the opportunity more attractive for investors as debt-to-equity ratio has a buffer. Furthermore, a blue bond allows investors to know that their money has environmental impact that is transparent and traceable.

Blue bond growth – Blue bonds are much like green bonds, however they focus only on marine and coastal projects whereas green bonds focus on a wide range of projects with environmental impact. The green bond market has had rapid growth and currently stands at $1tn total issuance.

Experts expect to see this success mirrored in the blue bond market, which reached $15.25bn in cumulative issuances in June 2025. The world’s first sovereign blue bond launched by the Government of Seychelles with support from the World Bank in 2018 has proved successful, by increasing the management of a marine protected area by 17 million ha and improving fishing sector workflows.

Emerging markets – Most issuances of blue bonds are from emerging economies. This is exciting as emerging markets are widely expected to outperform developed markets in the future. If blue bonds are integrated, this creates a new standard for how our future economy functions valuing nature as well as money.

A key foundation of blue bonds is being able to report and measure the progress of a project, so you can confirm a project has reached maturity. Companies such as SOFAR, which own and develop ocean sensor networks and tools are key to uphold the credibility of this emerging asset class, ensuring high-quality, reliable and comparable data. Integrating ocean policy and bond frameworks will also be essential to maintain growth.

Looking forward – India’s first blue bond is a sign that financial markets are beginning to recognise oceans, rivers and coastal ecosystems as essential economic infrastructure. As blue bonds mature into a recognised asset class, their success will depend on the same fundamentals as any bond including credible data, clear standards and investor confidence but with an added imperative – the planet cannot afford for this market to fail.

15 June 2026, London. Ocean 14 Capital Limited, a private equity impact investment firm focused on the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 14 (SDG14): Life Below Water, announced the appointment of Beth Harrap as Partner. Harrap has joined the investment team to focus on buy-out and growth equity investments, supporting the firm’s strategy of building a sustainable blue economy private equity platform.

Harrap brings more than 15 years of investment experience with a decade focusing on European private equity, the majority of which was with Canadian investment firm, Brookfield Asset Management. There, her transaction experience includes the acquisition of a controlling stake in Imagine Communications Group, the Irish rural broadband and spectrum owner; $4.9 billion take-private of HomeServe, the international home services business; Brookfield’s 25% stake in First Hydro, the UK hydroelectric business; and the build-out of Brookfield’s European renewable platform, including a 191MW Portuguese and Northern Irish wind portfolio and a 137MW Irish wind portfolio.

“As the blue economy becomes an increasingly prominent feature of the investment landscape and Ocean 14 Capital Limited’s strategy evolves by moving towards later stage and growth private equity investments, adding a principle with private equity experience as extensive as Beth’s allows us to up our game as we take our next steps,” said Chris Gorell Barnes, founding partner.

“Beth’s addition to the team will allow us to continue to lead private equity investment in the blue economy.  Her deep private equity experience and discipline are very complementary to our industrial and impact origins and significantly allow us to accelerate value creation in our portcos and returns for our investors,” said Francisco Saraiva Gomes, founding partner, chief investment officer.

“Ocean 14 Capital is doing something genuinely distinctive — combining institutional private equity discipline with a clear and measurable impact thesis. I am delighted to be joining the team as they continue to drive the transformation of the blue economy,” said Beth Harrap.

“The due diligence required to find a blue economy investment that also makes both meaningful and measurable impact, is intense,” said Geoge Duffield, founding partner and head of impact, adding, “Beth’s extensive experience and diverse skill set will enhance the depth of our team, enabling us to expand into new areas while reinforcing our proven capabilities in later-stage and growth equity”.

The ocean is the world’s largest ecosystem, covering 70% of the earths’ surface and playing host to an estimated 80% of the planet’s biodiversity. It provides the oxygen for every second breath taken and is the largest natural carbon sink helping to limit the impacts of climate change. From jobs to food via innovation and clean energy, the ocean flows through practically all the 17 SDGs with major industries worldwide both dependent upon and impacting ocean health.

These ocean-linked sectors include (among others) shipping, seafood, marine renewable energy, port construction, coastal tourism, coastal infrastructure, and the consumption and production of solid waste material such as plastic and collectively contribute to a ‘blue economy’.

The blue economy, which employs some 30 million people, could generate up to 12 million new jobs by 2030, including in key sectors such as food and fishing, shipping, ports and tourism, according to the International Finance Corporation. With an annual economic value estimated at $2.5 trillion, the blue economy is equivalent to the world’s 7th largest economy, according to the Sustainable Blue Economy Finance Initiative, a UN-convened global community focused on the intersection between private finance and ocean health.

About Ocean 14 Capital

Founded in 2021, Ocean 14 Capital Ltd is the investment adviser to Ocean 14 Capital Fund 1 SCSp (“Ocean 14 Capital Fund” or the “Fund”), a closed €201 million impact fund focused on driving a sustainable and regenerative blue economy. Fund 1 is currently invested with 16 companies across the two core themes: food security and marine ecosystems.

Within the food security theme there are three verticals: sustainable aquaculture, alternatives to fish protein, and sustainable fisheries, while under the marine ecosystem umbrella, the Fund looks at investments in circular plastics and marine flora and seaweed.

The Ocean 14 Capital team has more than 65 years of combined investment, impact and industry experience. The team, together with their external advisors, considered to be some of the world’s most renowned scientists and marine biologists, puts Ocean 14 Capital in a unique position to access to deal flow and sector knowledge.

For more information about Ocean 14 Capital, visit www.ocean14capital.com.

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Net-Zero Framework – If the shipping industry were a country, it would rank as the world’s sixth-largest greenhouse gas emitter. The Net-Zero Framework has two main goals – creating a global fuel standard to reduce pollutant ratios in shipping fuel and establishing a pricing mechanism on greenhouse gas emissions to encourage alignment with the global fuel standard.

The legislation will apply to all ships over 5,000 gt, responsible for 85% of global shipping emissions. The Committee will plan a one-day expert workshop ahead of MEPC 85 on “chain of custody” models to trace and verify fuel origins and emissions.

North-East Atlantic ECA – The new ECA for the North-East Atlantic covers waters up to 200 nautical miles from the baselines of Greenland, Iceland, the Faroes, Ireland, the UK, France, Spain and Portugal. The policy enters into full force in 2028. Ships in these zones will be required to burn fuel with sulphur content no greater than 0.10%, alongside stricter nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter limits.

Shipping fuel has a sulphur content roughly 3,500 times higher than car diesel and is linked to around 13% of global sulphur oxide (SOx) and 15% of global NOx emissions. The pollutants from shipping are estimated to cause 400,000 premature deaths annually. Sulphur when mixed with H2O in the atmosphere also causes acid rain, damaging trees and making aquatic environments toxic.

Biofuels as a transition – Ninety percent of global trade relies on shipping for transport. To meet the incoming requirements, biofuels remain the most readily deployable transition option, operating as “drop-in” fuel usable on most ships without engine modification. Modern bioenergy adoption has increased 4% between 2010 to 2023. However, to align with a Net Zero Scenario, bioenergy use must increase another 8% per year by 2030, underlining the importance of investing in renewable fuels and efficient monitoring of their implementation.

Targeting alternative pollution sources – The Committee agreed to develop a mandatory code governing the maritime transport of plastic pellets in freight containers, prompted in part by the MV X-Press Pearl disaster off Sri Lanka in 2021. This sits alongside the new 2026 Strategy and Action Plan on Marine Plastic Litter from Ships, which targets zero plastic waste discharges by 2030 and the voluntary marking of fishing gear – a modest step toward addressing the ghost gear crisis we explored last month.

Underwater noise – The Committee also advanced its work on underwater radiated noise (URN), agreeing in principle to extend the experience-building phase by two years to the end of 2028. An IMO study on URN emissions will also be commissioned as an evidence base for future measures – a signal that noise pollution, long an under-monitored stressor on marine life, is growing in prominence on the agenda.

Looking forward – The MEPC’s progress hinges on high-resolution, verifiable ocean and vessel data. ECA compliance, fuel chain tracking, pollution response and underwater noise rules all depend on measurement across waters that remain among the least observed parts of the planet.

Companies such as SOFAR that provide continuous data on temperature, currents, water quality and underwater sound, precisely cover the parameters the IMO’s expanding agenda now demands. As the IMO’s targets harden into binding obligations, the companies building the ocean’s data layer will be central to ensuring their delivery.

Why does this matter? The global fish meal market is a rapidly growing industry, valued at $11.04bn in 2025 and projected to reach $20.97bn by 2034. Where fishmeal and fish oil were once predominantly used in pig and poultry farming – accounting for 98% of consumption – the aquaculture industry now consumes 87% of fishmeal and 74% of fish oil globally.

Although stringent rules govern the labelling and traceability of seafood sold for human consumption, these do not extend to the feed those fish are raised on, which remains vague. The DNA study exposes a significant industry gap in labelling requirements and raises important questions around supply chains, sustainability and disclosure as demand continues to grow in line with global protein need.

Questioning sustainability – The ecological consequences of current feed ingredient sourcing run deep. Seven of the world’s top ten fisheries by volume target wild forage species including herring and anchovies, around 90% of which are processed into fishmeal and fish oil. These species form the cornerstone of marine food webs, sustaining seabirds and marine mammals.

Depleting populations create cascading risks that extend well beyond supply shortages in aquaculture. However, efforts to reduce wild fish dependency by switching to plant-based substitutes have been found to shift environmental pressures rather than resolve them.

Production emissions – Between 2000 and 2020, European aquaculture cut wild fish for food use by 13% but saw greenhouse gas emissions rise 314%, land use increase 594% and water consumption grow 236%. This reflects a stark balancing act between protecting marine and land environments. Critically, environmental impact varies dramatically depending on where ingredients are sourced rather than what they are.

Soybean production in Brazil, for instance, generates over ten times the emissions of equivalent US production due to land use change, underlining the importance of monitoring sourcing and reducing emissions at the point of origin.

Supply chain vulnerability – The study’s finding of a largely Northeast Atlantic supply chain highlights a regional dependency. Forage fish are highly sensitive to temperature change and increasingly unpredictable climate patterns are driving periodic population declines that create market volatility.

Furthermore, the Northeast Atlantic’s three key pelagic species are currently fished without confirmed quota-sharing arrangements, with combined national catches consistently exceeding scientific advice. The concentration of aquafeed sourcing in a single contested region is a structural risk the sector must address.

Alternative ingredients – The answer lies in low-impact alternatives that prioritise circularity. The potential of the black soldier fly (BSF) has been recognised in Europe, with the International Platform of Insects for Food and Feed (IPIFF) urging the EU to set mandatory inclusion percentages in aquafeed. Recent trials also suggest insect feed has antibacterial properties that support fish health.

Companies such as Enthos utilise BSF larvae to convert organic food waste into high-quality protein meal and oil, solving two sustainability challenges simultaneously. Marine microalgae has also been acknowledged as an alternative but is yet to scale.

Future direction – The feed supply chain has been overlooked in aquaculture’s sustainability credentials. Greater transparency, diversified sourcing and investment in circular alternatives are not optional extras – they are the foundation the sector must build on for continued growth.

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Why it matters – In the Great Pacific Garbage Patch (GPGP), a mass of floating plastic spanning an area three times the size of France, 75% to 86% of plastic is linked to fishing activities. The ghost gear can be traced to mainly the US, China, Japan and the Korean Peninsula. It is estimated that 500,000 mt to 1 million mt of fishing gear ends up in the sea every year, highlighting the magnitude of the problem. Everything on our planet is interlinked. When something is dumped, it does not disappear, it pollutes the whole marine ecosystem, including the deepest point on Earth – the Mariana Trench.

Ecosystem decline – A visible consequence of ghost gear is the entrapment or digestion of items by marine life. A WWF report has labelled fishing gear as the deadliest of marine plastic debris, expected to impact 66% of marine mammals, 50% of all sea birds and all species of sea turtles. In 2018, it was reported 650,000 marine animals are killed each year by discarded nets, disrupting natural ocean processes such as the nutrients cycle.

Problem of microplastics – A less visible consequence of discarded fishing gear in the ocean is microplastics, which due to the unforgiving elements of the sea, can break down even smaller into nanoplastics. Microplastics in oceans have been linked to health problems and mortality in corals, fish, marine mammals, seabirds, sea turtles, zooplankton as well as other ocean creatures. This in turn impacts humans in multiple ways from disrupting the natural processes that regulate oceans, such as the ability of plankton to photosynthesis, to the health impacts of eating seafood which contains microplastics.

Human health risk – Microplastics have been found inside human bones, highlighting the depth of the problem. Furthermore, bodies containing high amounts of microplastics appear more susceptible to stokes, heart attacks and dementia. Chemicals contained in plastics most likely interfere with hormones and therefore the body’s metabolic function. The invisibility of microplastics and the movement of ocean currents adds a nuance to our understandings of the ocean and forces us to inspect our binary ideas of boundaries and categories.

Limitation of borders – Chile, on the 10 March 2026, made a historical announcement to protect 337,000 sq km of the waters around the Juan Fernandez and Nazca-Desventuradas marine parks, equating to the third largest no-take zone in the world, covering 899,268 sq km. This is a landmark achievement, supported by the Blue Marine Foundation, which will provide great benefit to the protected area. However, marine protected areas (MPAs) are still affected by abandoned fishing gear as the ocean currents circulate beyond human constructed borders. This enforces the need to clean up fishing gear as even in MPAs, fishing nets and associated microplastics can still damage the environment.

Innovative solutions – Safe disposal of fishing nets is essential to ensuring less animal deaths and microplastic complications, however lack of waste infrastructure, logistical barriers and lax enforcement perpetuate the issue. Many innovative options are available, from companies such as Bureo repurposing fishing nets into items such as waterproof clothing to Ukraine’s use of fishing nets as drone defences.

A holistic approach – Ultimately, the crisis of ghost gear proves that the ocean does not recognise human borders or protected statuses. Abandoned equipment acts as a persistent, lethal threat across the entire water column to both marine life and human health. Protecting our waters requires marine protected areas, but also a global shift toward accountability, innovative recycling and rigorous disposal protocols for fishing gear. Until we treat the ocean as a single, interconnected system, MPAs will remain vulnerable to the reach of plastic pollution from beyond their assigned borders.

What’s going on? The CATCH IT system was designed to be the EU’s definitive weapon against illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing – a phenomenon that a 2009 study estimated drained over $10bn-$23bn from the global economy in 2003. The IUU Fishing regulation to prevent, deter and eliminate IUU fishing has been in force since 1 January 2010 and the IUU Fishing Risk Index was created in 2019 to score different countries’ efforts. Despite these measures, estimates suggest that global IUU catches are equal to 13%-31% of fish in production.

Catch certificates – Before the digital 2026 requirements came into force, fishing numbers were reported via a paper “catch certificate” – an import document which certifies that products were caught in compliance with national and international fishing laws as well as conservation and management metrics. The document declared the state flag the ship was operating under, however the paper system came with many problems.

Loopholes in the old system – The paper system was exploited by systematic fraud. Copies of the same catch certificate could be used to import multiple catches at multiple EU member state entry points, because there was no centralised European system to conduct cross-checks on other member states. Uneven enforcement across member states also created a problem, as importers with “high-risk” seafood knew to go to ports such as the Netherlands which check less than 5% of fish imports from non-EU vessels, compared to Spain which would check over 70%. With over 250,000 catch certificates in the EU annually, the quantity to physically check was also near-impossible.

Welcoming CATCH – The CATCH IT system entered into play to confront the problems with the paper system, but there have been teething issues from the start. Countries such as Spain report a lack of integration with current custom control systems, leading to loss of stock due to ship imports being refused. The system also contains both software and technical gaps, delivering server error messages and not including all fish species and postal codes for the countries that need to use it. Furthermore, catch certificates from non-EU countries must be uploaded in PDF format to the system. However, for big catches, the initial file size limit of 2 MB was too small.

Mounting concern – As well as issues with the technology and software, the strict parameters such as recording catches from zero kg and small margins of tolerance are proving “unworkable in practice”, increasing the likelihood of heavy fines for companies due to breaking unattainable standards. Organisations have asked for the CATCH IT system enforcement to be postponed until January 2027 to leave time for frictions to be smoothed. Nevertheless, the European Commission still seems adamant at continuing with implementation, introducing “flexibilities temporarily” while users adjust to the system.

Proof of the catch – The CATCH system confirms that the seafood industry in Europe is trending towards data specificity rather than estimates, traceability premiums and the integration of digital systems into everyday operational tasks. While wild-catch fisheries grapple with these new rules, the aquaculture sector has been driving digital automation and monitoring for years throughout the value chain. Companies such as aquaManager enable the production of reliable, structured and transparent data in aquaculture to help with regulations and policy, as well as contributing to the development of more sustainable farming methods.

Looking ahead – The establishment of CATCH demonstrates the need for data-driven supply chains and the prioritisation of automation going forward across both wild and farmed fishing. Transparency is the new currency in the seafood industry.

In November 2025, the World Food Programme (WFP) published its 2026 Global Outlook entitled Hunger and hope: Innovative solutions to address food insecurity, which highlighted that 318m people are facing food insecurity—more than double pre-pandemic levels in 2019. The 35-page document makes for sombre reading, with nearly 38m children under five acutely malnourished and 16 hunger hotspots where food security is expected to deteriorate between November 2025 and May 2026.

Yet nowhere in the report, which looks to innovation as a key enabler of the WFP’s Strategic Plan 2026-2029, are blue foods or indeed any ocean-driven innovations mentioned as potential solutions. Although many of the countries affected have access to a coastline, conflict—which is the lead cause of hunger and malnutrition—is likely to hinder the development of blue foods.

In regions facing extreme weather and economic pressures, the other two drivers of acute food insecurity, blue foods have the potential to drive innovation for food insecurity. Moreover, “hidden hunger”, the deficiency of micronutrients, is a global health issue affecting over 2bn people, who may consume enough calories but lack essential vitamins and minerals.

So how can blue foods help?

To read the full blog and find out how Chris Gorell Barnes believes blue foods can help escalating food insecurity, click here.

Role of the fund – Since its establishment in 2017, The Norwegian Aquaculture Fund has paid out NOK17.1bn to coastal communities and authorities. Revenue is generated for the fund through production fees, sales and auctions of licences related to fish farming. Fifty-five percent of revenue from the sale of new farming permits goes towards the Aquaculture Fund along with the total production tax. The past two years, NOK6.1bn has been paid out to communities, of which 80% has gone to municipalities and 20% to country municipalities that have aquaculture activities.

Norwegian aquaculture – Norway is the second largest exporter of seafood globally. The Norwegian Seafood Council exported 2.8 million mt of seafood equalling NOK181.5bn in 2025, despite tricky trading conditions. From 2024, this is an increase of 4%, demonstrating the growing wealth of the sector. Since 2010, the value of Norwegian aquaculture has increased 270%, with average annual growth equalling around 10%. The Aquaculture Fund ensures communities hosting aquaculture firms also reap the rewards of the industry on their land.

Funding communities – Froya, one of the municipalities earning the most from the Aquaculture Fund, is located in Trondelag County. Mayor Kristin Stromskag noted it uses the money to improve the lives of inhabitants and to create a healthier economy. This can range from community events and renovations to attracting teachers to the area with bonuses. As many people can earn more in the aquaculture industry, lower-paying state roles such as teaching need an extra push to ensure appropriate people are filling the posts.

Inspecting dependency – The Aquaculture Fund allows locals to benefit from the profits of the aquaculture in their area. However, it also demonstrates how dependent communities are on the industry. Even with the Fund, Norway had to reform their tax system so wealthy fishing billionaires leaving the country did not severely impact local municipalities when they no longer paid an individual tax contribution. Furthermore, unsustainable intensive aquaculture methods are now damaging both wild and farmed fish stocks in Norway due to increased environmental pollution and sea lice outbreaks. This not only impacts the livelihoods of local people but paradoxically threatens the profitability of the aquaculture industry itself.

Success in sustainability – Pioneering companies including Ava Ocean are essential for sustained growth of the aquaculture industry. Ava Ocean has pioneered a non-destructive approach to harvesting Arctic scallops in the Barents Sea and was granted fishing rights following a 30-year ban that had been introduced to address the impacts of harmful trawling. Other companies, like sustainable cod-farmer Kime Akva, highlight their focus on creating positive local ripple effects. Supporting companies that prioritise environmental stewardship and local development will be key to ensuring that aquaculture continues to deliver long-term, equitable benefits across Norway’s coastal regions.

Looking forward – The importance of developing sustainable practices and the cooperation of public and private sectors concerning the ocean was emphasised at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in January through the initiative Blue Davos. The Norwegian Aquaculture Fund demonstrates one way in which public-private cooperation can be achieved. In future, further development of legally binding mechanisms will be essential to ensure private industries both create value and protect the environments on which they rely.

Why does this matter? The EU Fish Market Report has been published annually by the European Market Observatory for Fisheries and Aquaculture Products (EUMOFA) since 2014, offering key insights into market behaviour, consumer patterns and policy outcomes. The report underscores the importance of market transparency to inform EU policymaking and promote a better understanding of shifting dynamics in the sector. It also allows for closer examination of the underlying factors influencing current trends in pricing.

Rising prices, falling consumption – While data shows a 4% increase in overall spending, this does not reflect higher consumption. Instead, the cost of seafood per unit has risen, meaning households are paying more for less. This trend is part of wider food inflation across Europe, with aquatic food prices increasing by 25% between 2020 and 2024 – less than the 28% for meat and 32% for food overall.

Unpredictable input costs – In aquaculture, much of the rising cost pressure stems from rising input prices. Feed and transport costs have climbed, largely driven by fluctuating energy markets and geopolitical uncertainty. The report highlights these disruptions as central to the price surge, indicating that stabilising supply chains, particularly energy and logistics, could help address the problem.

Energy as a key vulnerability – Aquaculture is notably energy-intensive. Electricity makes up a significant proportion of operational costs. The recent energy crisis has exposed one of the industry’s main vulnerabilities – its dependency on fossil fuels. As these energy sources become more expensive or unpredictable, production costs increase accordingly. In response, the European Commission launched an action plan in 2023 to decarbonise EU fisheries and aquaculture. Its goal is to achieve a carbon-neutral sector by 2050 through energy efficiency improvements and a shift to renewable sources.

Decarbonisation and local energy – For aquaculture to have long-term resilience and sustainability, reliance on fossil fuels must be reduced. Decarbonisation makes the industry less vulnerable to external shocks by decentralising energy production. This can be achieved even on a small scale. Fisheries and farms could install clean energy systems locally, such as compact wind turbines and floating solar panels. Pilot schemes are currently testing floating wind farms tailored for marine aquaculture use. These innovations are gaining momentum, with companies such as Alotta, a Norwegian floating solar firm, recently raising NOK63.5 million ($6.2m) to globally scale its renewable floating solar model for aquaculture energy.

Efficiency through AI – Savings can also be made through more efficient systems and processes. Feed accounts for around 60% of total production expenses in aquaculture. Inefficiencies such as overfeeding not only raise costs but also pollutes aquatic environments. However, recent developments in AI have brought promising solutions. AI-powered systems are now capable of monitoring fish behaviour, water quality and health indicators in real time, allowing for precise feed management.

Smarter systems – Companies such as aquaManger are using advanced sensors and AI-enabled cameras to track key metrics including oxygen levels, temperature and behaviour which all contribute towards appetite. This technology supports data-driven decisions on feeding schedules, helping to enhance survival rates and optimise resource use. It demonstrates that energy efficiency and digital innovation can go hand in hand, delivering economic and environmental benefits across the sector.

Addressing vulnerability – The EU Fish Market Report 2025 illustrates that while higher prices and lower consumption reflect present challenges, they also signal where interventions are needed. From smarter feeding systems to decentralised renewable energy, the path forward lies in innovation, efficiency and sustainability. Aquafood has already been flagged as part of a climate solution with blue foods generating minimal CO2 emissions, providing a greener protein alternative to meat. The right investment today could build a more resilient, affordable and environmentally sound aquaculture industry for the future.